powerballticket|1583万吨！一季度全国猪肉产量同比下降，能繁母猪也在降，拐点临近？

Original title: 15.83 million tons! In the first quarter, the national pork production dropped compared with the same period last year, and the breeding sows are also falling, and the inflection point is approaching? Source: China Pig raising Network

Source: interface news, time Weekly, Internet finishing, such as 2024-05-03 11:48:00 | View: recently, pork prices have risen tentatively, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Village has clearly pointed out that with the production capacity of live pigs.PowerballticketThe number of breeding sows, medium and large pigs and newborn piglets all showed an obvious downward trend. This trend indicates that the relationship between supply and demand in the pig market will be further improved in the second quarter, and the pig farming industry is expected to turn losses into profits.

In fact, there have been obvious signs of improvement in the relationship between supply and demand in the market recently. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the national pork output in the first quarter was 15.83 million tons, although it was down 0% from the same period last year.Powerballticket.4%, but considering the continuous decline in the stock of fertile sows, the supply side may continue to shrink in the future.

In March 2023, the stock of fertile sows in China continued to be removed, and the stock of fertile sows has declined for five consecutive quarters since the beginning of 2023. The continuation of this trend means that the supply of live pigs will shrink for some time to come. As the effect of eliminating the production capacity of breeding sows is gradually transmitted to the pig market, it is expected that the supply of live pigs will further shrink in 2024, which will help to restore the balance between supply and demand in the market.

In addition, with the progress of aquaculture technology and the optimization of cost management, the pressure of aquaculture cost is expected to decrease in the coming period of time, and the profit situation of aquaculture is also expected to pick up. This is undoubtedly a positive signal for the pig farming industry.

Under the long pig cycle, the industry tends to be cautious and continue to reduce costs to seek steady development.

Pig cycle grinding bottom, the industry into "hibernation", pig enterprises also change their ideas, no longer blog cycle, reduce cost and efficiency, steady development has become the common choice of pig enterprises. With the continuous elimination of breeding sows, pig prices have risen moderately since March this year, and some people in the industry expect the pig cycle to usher in an inflection point in the second half of the year, the dawn of victory for pig enterprises seems to be at hand.

Against this background, time Weekly reporter had an in-depth dialogue with Shang Pengchao, secretary of Jingji Zhinong's board of directors, to share his insights on pig cycle and to explore the way of high-quality development of industries and enterprises.

The following is a transcript of the conversation:

Time Weekly: since 2022, the cold winter of the downward pig cycle has gradually enveloped the pig farming industry. Under this background, what changes have taken place in the industry ecology, pattern and production mode? What changes have taken place in your understanding of your work after a long downward cycle?

Shang Pengchao: the biggest change is that everyone is more cautious. It is very profitable to raise a pig when the pig price is high, and many pig enterprises choose to snap up young pigs at the high price of piglets (1500,1800 yuan per pig). Now the price of a fat pig is only 1800 yuan, due to the radical expansion of production at that time, there is a deviation in the judgment of the duration of the cyclical dividend, resulting in huge losses or even elimination of many enterprises.

From the perspective of the industry, the large-scale process of the pig breeding industry has accelerated, and the competition pattern has gradually transitioned from small bulk farmers to medium and large-scale farming enterprises. Large-scale aquaculture enterprises have high management level, strong biosafety prevention and control and financing ability, which directly affect the rhythm of capacity removal and change the length and fluctuation range of pig price cycle.

After more than ten months of continuous losses, the cash flow of aquaculture enterprises is relatively tight, the industry generally reduces and suspends new projects, and compresses and controls the cost of stock projects as much as possible.

And we are more deeply aware of the importance of cost control to enterprises, the company has been committed to reducing costs and efficiency, and achieved certain results, in the future, the company will continue to focus on cost control, continue to reduce breeding costs and enhance comprehensive competitiveness.

Time Weekly: through the long downward cycle is inseparable from enterprises to reduce costs and increase efficiency, is it convenient to reveal the latest breeding costs? What measures does your company mainly take to reduce the cost of raising pigs? What is the space for cost reduction in the future?

Shang Pengchao: in March 2024, the average breeding cost of the company was 14.11 yuan / kg, and the corresponding complete cost was about 15.36 yuan / kg.

The company's cost reduction measures mainly include: first, to improve the health of pigs through fine management, to reduce the average weaning cost and the cost of fattening pigs; second, to optimize the drug use plan to reduce the consumption of drugs and vaccines to achieve cost reduction; third, through accurate nutrition, feed formula optimization, reduce feed costs.

The follow-up cost reduction space is mainly reflected in: continuously promoting fine management, improving the health of pigs, increasing the number of weaned pigs, survival rate and other indicators, at the same time, it can also reduce the consumption of medicine vaccine and reduce the average cost; by further optimizing the nutrition formula, precise feeding, control feed cost, and improve the average weight of pigs; through high-quality introduction and other measures to improve breeding and growth performance.

Time Weekly: at present, there are voices in the industry saying that pig prices may still be at the bottom stage, and pig enterprises need a full cost of less than 15 yuan / kg in order to survive better. What do you think of this view?

Shang Pengchao: the complete cost of 15 yuan / kg is an excellent level in the industry. You can make a small profit by referring to the pig market price in Guangdong in April.

The company's (full cost) has now achieved 15.36 yuan / kg, and the follow-up will continue to devote itself to the improvement of pig health and the level of production management, continue to strengthen full production, improve breeding efficiency, and the complete cost of breeding is expected to further reduce and break through.

Time Weekly: recently, the prices of piglets and live pigs are on the rise, while the stock of fertile sows across the country is also declining. Is this a sign that the inflection point of the pig cycle is coming? What other signals do you need to pay attention to when paying attention to the inflection point of the pig cycle? What do you think of the future of the pig industry?

Shang Pengchao: according to the data of the Bureau of Statistics, the elimination of fertile sows has been going on for 9 months. Recently, the prices of fat pigs and piglets have risen to a certain extent. The industry is generally optimistic about pig prices in the next six months, but there is still uncertainty in the long run. At present, the capacity concentration of the pig breeding industry is significantly higher than in the past, large-scale enterprises have a large number of columns, stable production capacity, and will maintain a good cost control ability, and the amplitude of the industry cycle may be narrowed in the future.