steamcryptogame|皖维高新(600063)：PVA价差持续修复 静待PVB投产

Event: the company released its quarterly report of 2024, and the company achieved revenue of 18% in the first quarter.Steamcryptogame0 billion yuan, compared with the same period last year-18Steamcryptogame.9%, realized the net profit of 50 million yuan,-63.7% compared with the same period last year, deducted the non-return net profit of 50 million yuan,-53.3% compared with the same period last year, and realized the basic EPS of 0.02 yuan. First-quarter results continued to be under pressure, PVA price decline narrowed. The company's product prices continued to decline in the first quarter, with a narrowing decline: the average price of PVA in the first quarter was 10462.7 yuan / ton,-28.8% from the same period last year, achieving income of 490 million yuan; the average sales price of vinyl acetate was 6363.5 yuan / ton,-7.5% from the same period last year, and the income was 120 million yuan; the average cement price was 203.9 yuan / ton,-31.1% from the same period last year, with an income of 73.77 million yuan The average sales price of methyl acetate was 3814.8 yuan / ton, + 5.93% compared with the same period last year, realizing income of 240 million yuan; the average sales price of polyester chips was 7990.1 yuan / ton,-4.3% compared with the same period last year, and the income was 160 million yuan; the average sales price of redispersible rubber powder was 8812.0 yuan / ton,-22.1% compared with the same period last year, and the income was 140 million yuan. The average sales price of PVB intermediate film is 23555.2 yuan / ton,-12.1% compared with the same period last year, with an income of 140 million yuan. PVA market demand continued to be weak in the first quarter of 2024, and the price decline narrowed. The supply side of PVA is good, the demand is under pressure, and the price gap has been repaired. Since the beginning of 2024, PVA prices have risen slowly. According to Baichuan Yingfu, as of April 29, 2024, the average price of PVA was 11606.0 yuan / ton, + 4.2% from the beginning of the year. In terms of price difference in the production of PVA by calcium carbide acetylene process, from the beginning of the yearSteamcryptogameIt was repaired from 774.3 yuan / ton to 2608.9 yuan / ton. Looking back, the cost side: the current price of raw material vinyl acetate is at the bottom, the plant of the North China flow factory is running under load reduction, the plant of the mainstream manufacturer in the northwest is short-stopped, and the price is expected to rise at the supply end; on the supply side: the operating rate has continued to rise since the beginning of the year. Inventory began to decline sharply in March, and there is no pressure on inventory. Demand side: the main application scenario of PVA is large infrastructure. As an added material, it accounts for a low proportion of downstream costs, and the downstream is not sensitive to PVA price. We expect the prosperity of large infrastructure industry to rise, and the demand for PVA is expected to grow. The demand for special PVA products is strong, and we are optimistic about the release of the company's new product capacity.SteamcryptogameThe performance increment. With the rapid development of PVA optical film, PVB film, polymerization auxiliaries, soil improvement, paper adhesive, ceramic adhesive, environmental protection, medicine and cosmetics and other PVA downstream industries, the demand for special PVA products is very strong. The company increases the R & D and production of PVA fiber, PVB resin, PVB film, PVA optical film, redispersible rubber powder and other products. Special PVA and its extended industrial chain products are gradually put on the market. The market share continues to increase, ordinary products basically achieve import substitution, and the downstream consumption structure of the domestic PVA industry has also been further improved. By the end of 2023, the company's PVA optical film production capacity of 1200 million square meters per year, capacity utilization rate of 37.7 percent, capacity under construction of 2000 million square meters / year, is expected to be completed in the first half of 2025; PVB film existing production capacity of 22000 tons / year, capacity utilization of 74.6 percent, capacity under construction of 20 million tons / year, is expected to be put into production in the second half of 2024. Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the company's operating income from 2024 to 2026 is 9.72 billion yuan (+ 17.6%), 10.96 billion yuan (+ 12.8%) and 12.37 billion yuan (+ 12.8%), respectively, and the net profit is 1 billion yuan (+ 192.9%), 1.19 billion yuan (+ 19.0%) and 1.63 billion yuan (+ 36.9%), respectively. The EPS is 0.46,0.55,0.76 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE is 9 times, 7 times and 5 times respectively. Maintain the "hold" rating. Risk hint: raw material supply and price fluctuation risk, product price fluctuation risk, project production not as expected risk. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.